Risk measures for direct real estate investments with non-normal or unknown return distributions

The volatility of returns is probably the most widely used risk measure for real estate. This is rather surprising since a number of studies have cast doubts on the view that volatility can capture the manifold risks attached to properties and corresponds to the risk attitude of investors. A central issue in this discussion is the statistical properties of real estate returns—in contrast to neoclassical capital market theory they are mostly non-normal and often unknown, which render many statistical measures useless. Based on a literature review and an analysis of data from Germany we provide evidence that volatility alone is inappropriate for measuring the risk of direct real estate. We use a unique data sample by IPD, which includes the total returns of 939 properties across different usage types (56% office, 20% retail, 8% others and 16% residential properties) from 1996 to 2009, the German IPD Index, and the German Property Index. The analysis of the distributional characteristics shows that German real estate returns in this period were not normally distributed and that a logistic distribution would have been a better fit. This is in line with most of the current literature on this subject and leads to the question which indicators are more appropriate to measure real estate risks. We suggest that a combination of quantitative and qualitative risk measures more adequately captures real estate risks and conforms better with investor attitudes to risk. Furthermore, we present criteria for the purpose of risk classification

Inter-Relationship between Testicular Dysgenesis and Leydig Cell Function in the Masculinization Programming Window in the Rat

The testicular dysgenesis syndrome (TDS) hypothesis proposes that maldevelopment of the testis, irrespective of cause, leads to malfunction of the somatic (Leydig, Sertoli) cells and consequent downstream TDS disorders. Studies in rats exposed in utero to di(n-butyl) phthalate (DBP) have strongly supported the TDS concept, but so far no direct evidence has been produced that links dysgenesis per se to somatic cell dysfunction, in particular to androgen production/action during the ‘masculinization programming window’ (MPW; e15.5–e18.5). Normal reproductive tract development and anogenital distance (AGD) are programmed within the MPW, and TDS disorders arise because of deficiencies in this programming. However, DBP-induced focal testicular dysgenesis (Leydig cell aggregation, ectopic Sertoli cells, malformed seminiferous cords) is not evident until after the MPW. Therefore, we used AGD as a read-out of androgen exposure in the MPW, and investigated if this measure was related to objectively quantified dysgenesis (Leydig cell aggregation) at e21.5 in male fetuses exposed to vehicle, DBP (500 or 750 mg/kg/day) or the synthetic glucocorticoid dexamethasone (Dex; alone or plus DBP-500) from e15.5–e18.5 (MPW), e13.5–e20.5 or e19.5–e20.5 (late window). Dysgenesis was found only in animals exposed to DBP during the MPW, and was negatively correlated (R2 = −0.5) with AGD at e21.5 and at postnatal day 8, irrespective of treatment period. Dysgenesis was also negatively correlated (R2 = –0.5) with intratesticular testosterone (ITT) at e21.5, but only when treatments in short windows (MPW, late window) were excluded; the same was true for correlation between AGD and ITT. We conclude that AGD, reflecting Leydig cell function solely within the MPW, is strongly related to focal dysgenesis. Our results point to this occurring because of a common early mechanism, targeted by DBP that determines both dysgenesis and early (during the MPW) fetal Leydig cell dysfunction. The findings provide strong validation of the TDS hypothesis

Exogenous Visual Orienting Is Associated with Specific Neurotransmitter Genetic Markers: A Population-Based Genetic Association Study

Background: Currently, there is a sense that the spatial orienting of attention is related to genotypic variations in cholinergic genes but not to variations in dopaminergic genes. However, reexamination of associations with both cholinergic and dopaminergic genes is warranted because previous studies used endogenous rather than exogenous cues and costs and benefits were not analyzed separately. Examining costs (increases in response time following an invalid precue) and benefits (decreases in response time following a valid pre-cue) separately could be important if dopaminergic genes (implicated in disorders such as attention deficit disorder) independently influence the different processes of orienting (e.g., disengage, move, engage). Methodology/Principal Findings: We tested normal subjects (N = 161) between 18 and 61 years. Participants completed a computer task in which pre-cues preceded the presence of a target. Subjects responded (with a key press) to the location of the target (right versus left of fixation). The cues could be valid (i.e., appear where the target would appear) or invalid (appear contralateral to where the target would appear). DNA sequencing assays were performed on buccal cells to genotype known genetic markers and these were examined for association with task scores. Here we show significant associations between visual orienting and genetic markers (on COMT, DAT1, and APOE; R 2 s from 4 % to 9%). Conclusions/Significance: One measure in particular – the response time cost of a single dim, invalid cue – was associate

Metabolic Networks of Sodalis glossinidius: A Systems Biology Approach to Reductive Evolution

Background: Genome reduction is a common evolutionary process affecting bacterial lineages that establish symbiotic or pathogenic associations with eukaryotic hosts. Such associations yield highly reduced genomes with greatly streamlined metabolic abilities shaped by the type of ecological association with the host. Sodalis glossinidius, the secondary endosymbiont of tsetse flies, represents one of the few complete genomes available of a bacterium at the initial stages of this process. In the present study, genome reduction is studied from a systems biology perspective through the reconstruction and functional analysis of genome-scale metabolic networks of S. glossinidius. Results: The functional profile of ancestral and extant metabolic networks sheds light on the evolutionary events underlying transition to a host-dependent lifestyle. Meanwhile, reductive evolution simulations on the extant metabolic network can predict possible future evolution of S. glossinidius in the context of genome reduction. Finally, knockout simulations in different metabolic systems reveal a gradual decrease in network robustness to different mutational events for bacterial endosymbionts at different stages of the symbiotic association. Conclusions: Stoichiometric analysis reveals few gene inactivation events whose effects on the functionality of S. glossinidius metabolic systems are drastic enough to account for the ecological transition from a free-living to hostdependent lifestyle. The decrease in network robustness across different metabolic systems may be associated with th

Identifying Fishes through DNA Barcodes and Microarrays

Background: International fish trade reached an import value of 62.8 billion Euro in 2006, of which 44.6% are covered by the European Union. Species identification is a key problem throughout the life cycle of fishes: from eggs and larvae to adults in fisheries research and control, as well as processed fish products in consumer protection. Methodology/Principal Findings: This study aims to evaluate the applicability of the three mitochondrial genes 16S rRNA (16S), cytochrome b (cyt b), and cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) for the identification of 50 European marine fish species by combining techniques of ‘‘DNA barcoding’’ and microarrays. In a DNA barcoding approach, neighbour Joining (NJ) phylogenetic trees of 369 16S, 212 cyt b, and 447 COI sequences indicated that cyt b and COI are suitable for unambiguous identification, whereas 16S failed to discriminate closely related flatfish and gurnard species. In course of probe design for DNA microarray development, each of the markers yielded a high number of potentially species-specific probes in silico, although many of them were rejected based on microarray hybridisation experiments. None of the markers provided probes to discriminate the sibling flatfish and gurnard species. However, since 16S-probes were less negatively influenced by the ‘‘position of label’’ effect and showed the lowest rejection rate and the highest mean signal intensity, 16S is more suitable for DNA microarray probe design than cty b and COI. The large portion of rejected COI-probes after hybridisation experiments (.90%) renders the DNA barcoding marker as rather unsuitable for this high-throughput technology. Conclusions/Significance: Based on these data, a DNA microarray containing 64 functional oligonucleotide probes for the identification of 30 out of the 50 fish species investigated was developed. It represents the next step towards an automated and easy-to-handle method to identify fish, ichthyoplankton, and fish products